Schedule trends

Holding up (97)

97 findings from 107 rows: 10 of them are a single comparison the engine records from both sides — "at home" and "on the road" are one test, not two — and are shown as one with both ends given.

• VALIDATEDcarries·bottom-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2016–2021 +0.58 (n=2,155, p=6.8e-9)Confirmed 2022–2024 +0.54 (n=1,225, p=4.9e-5)
  Since: 2025: +0.38, held
• VALIDATEDcarries·recent form bottom-quartile BELOW the established level
  Discovered 2016–2021 -2.21 (n=2,103, p=3.0e-66)Confirmed 2022–2024 -2.16 (n=1,134, p=6.0e-38)
  Since: 2025: -1.97, held
• VALIDATEDcarries·recent form top-quartile ABOVE the established level
  Discovered 2016–2021 +1.55 (n=2,098, p=3.2e-27)Confirmed 2022–2024 +1.35 (n=1,124, p=1.3e-12)
  Since: 2025: +0.82, held
• VALIDATEDcarries·late in the season
  Discovered 2016–2021 +0.54 (n=2,187, p=4.0e-5)Confirmed 2022–2024 +0.66 (n=1,304, p=3.5e-5)
  Since: 2025: +0.34, held
• VALIDATEDcarries·against a top-quartile-generous opponent for this stat
  Discovered 2016–2021 +0.51 (n=2,041, p=1.5e-4)Confirmed 2022–2024 +0.75 (n=1,127, p=1.2e-5)
  Since: 2025: +0.30, held
• VALIDATEDcarries·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2016–2021 -0.53 (n=2,038, p=6.2e-5)Confirmed 2022–2024 -0.60 (n=1,125, p=2.2e-4)
  Since: 2025: -0.20, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter hits·playing away
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.02 hits (n=129,003, p=5.2e-6)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.02 hits (n=98,260, p=5.9e-8)
  Same test from the other side — playing at home: -0.02 hits
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.02 hits, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter hits·bottom-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.07 hits (n=89,277, p=4.1e-95)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.08 hits (n=71,959, p=1.3e-82)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.08 hits, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter hits·recent form bottom-quartile BELOW the established level
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.05 hits (n=65,368, p=1.2e-40)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.06 hits (n=49,232, p=2.8e-35)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.03 hits, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter hits·recent form top-quartile ABOVE the established level
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.02 hits (n=65,497, p=9.0e-9)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.02 hits (n=49,443, p=4.3e-8)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.02 hits, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter hits·top-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.10 hits (n=69,369, p=1.0e-133)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.09 hits (n=68,902, p=1.9e-103)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.09 hits, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter hits·late in the season
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.05 hits (n=54,269, p=2.4e-29)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.02 hits (n=35,658, p=1.8e-5)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.02 hits, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter hits·against a top-quartile-generous opponent for this stat
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.03 hits (n=62,154, p=6.2e-15)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.03 hits (n=48,492, p=1.6e-8)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.03 hits, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter hits·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.03 hits (n=63,162, p=5.9e-13)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.03 hits (n=46,734, p=2.5e-11)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.03 hits, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter rbi·top-quartile rest for this sport
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.01 RBI (n=69,477, p=0.006)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.01 RBI (n=55,965, p=3.0e-4)
  Same test from the other side — bottom-quartile rest for this sport: -0.01 RBI
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.03 RBI, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter rbi·late in the season
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.02 RBI (n=54,269, p=1.1e-8)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.01 RBI (n=35,658, p=0.005)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.02 RBI, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter rbi·against a top-quartile-generous opponent for this stat
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.03 RBI (n=62,154, p=1.5e-11)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.02 RBI (n=48,492, p=6.5e-6)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.02 RBI, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter rbi·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.02 RBI (n=63,162, p=9.3e-11)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.02 RBI (n=46,734, p=4.0e-4)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.02 RBI, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter runs·top-quartile rest for this sport
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.01 (n=69,477, p=0.001)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.01 (n=55,965, p=0.012)
  Same test from the other side — bottom-quartile rest for this sport: -0.01
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.03, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter runs·late in the season
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.02 (n=54,269, p=2.0e-15)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.01 (n=35,658, p=0.002)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.03, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter runs·against a top-quartile-generous opponent for this stat
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.03 (n=62,154, p=1.1e-16)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.02 (n=48,492, p=9.7e-7)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.02, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter runs·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.02 (n=63,162, p=6.6e-16)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.02 (n=46,734, p=3.1e-7)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.02, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter strikeouts·playing away
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.06 (n=129,003, p=3.8e-76)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.06 (n=98,260, p=8.0e-64)
  Same test from the other side — playing at home: -0.06
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.07, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter strikeouts·against a top-quartile-generous opponent for this stat
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.04 (n=62,154, p=3.0e-32)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.03 (n=48,492, p=2.0e-13)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.02, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter strikeouts·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.04 (n=63,162, p=8.3e-22)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.03 (n=46,734, p=6.2e-10)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.04, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter total bases·playing away
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.02 TB (n=129,003, p=0.010)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.02 TB (n=98,260, p=0.004)
  Same test from the other side — playing at home: -0.02 TB
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.03 TB, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter total bases·bottom-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.15 TB (n=81,652, p=6.0e-97)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.15 TB (n=50,757, p=1.1e-70)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.16 TB, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter total bases·top-quartile rest for this sport
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.02 TB (n=69,477, p=0.001)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.02 TB (n=55,965, p=0.003)
  Same test from the other side — bottom-quartile rest for this sport: -0.02 TB
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.06 TB, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter total bases·recent form bottom-quartile BELOW the established level
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.11 TB (n=64,783, p=2.0e-43)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.12 TB (n=49,308, p=2.3e-38)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.09 TB, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter total bases·top-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.21 TB (n=71,963, p=1.9e-151)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.20 TB (n=59,595, p=4.8e-110)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.21 TB, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter total bases·late in the season
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.08 TB (n=54,269, p=1.2e-23)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.04 TB (n=35,658, p=2.7e-5)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.04 TB, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter total bases·against a top-quartile-generous opponent for this stat
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.06 TB (n=62,154, p=1.6e-11)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.05 TB (n=48,492, p=5.5e-8)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.04 TB, held
• VALIDATEDmlb batter total bases·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.05 TB (n=63,162, p=7.4e-11)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.05 TB (n=46,734, p=1.5e-7)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.06 TB, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher hits allowed·top-quartile rest for this sport
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.16 (n=38,722, p=1.1e-43)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.19 (n=30,351, p=6.4e-51)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.13, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher hits allowed·late in the season
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.24 (n=22,662, p=1.7e-92)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.14 (n=14,846, p=8.1e-24)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.18, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher hits allowed·bottom-quartile rest for this sport
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.08 (n=38,289, p=1.1e-19)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.10 (n=27,662, p=1.7e-25)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.10, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher ks·playing at home
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.10 Ks (n=53,104, p=7.8e-29)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.11 Ks (n=40,906, p=6.1e-24)
  Same test from the other side — playing away: -0.10 Ks
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.12 Ks, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher ks·bottom-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.18 Ks (n=33,940, p=1.1e-104)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.18 Ks (n=22,409, p=1.3e-81)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.19 Ks, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher ks·top-quartile rest for this sport
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.14 Ks (n=38,722, p=5.2e-37)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.13 Ks (n=30,351, p=1.5e-27)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.08 Ks, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher ks·recent form bottom-quartile BELOW the established level
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.28 Ks (n=25,935, p=1.5e-131)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.26 Ks (n=20,096, p=1.4e-94)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.30 Ks, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher ks·recent form top-quartile ABOVE the established level
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.18 Ks (n=27,373, p=1.3e-53)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.18 Ks (n=21,635, p=6.4e-43)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.20 Ks, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher ks·top-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.06 Ks (n=27,182, p=5.5e-5)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.05 Ks (n=21,031, p=0.002)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.04 Ks, held
• DECAYINGmlb pitcher ks·late in the season
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.09 Ks (n=22,662, p=1.3e-16)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.07 Ks (n=14,846, p=5.1e-7)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.02 Ks, missed
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher ks·bottom-quartile rest for this sport
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.11 Ks (n=38,289, p=1.3e-39)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.12 Ks (n=27,662, p=1.4e-37)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.11 Ks, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher ks·against a top-quartile-generous opponent for this stat
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.03 Ks (n=25,485, p=0.005)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.03 Ks (n=19,008, p=0.041)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.02 Ks, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher ks·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.03 Ks (n=24,911, p=0.006)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.03 Ks (n=18,816, p=0.038)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.01 Ks, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher walks·playing away
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.04 (n=50,622, p=4.0e-14)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.04 (n=39,171, p=6.1e-12)
  Same test from the other side — playing at home: -0.04
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.03, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher walks·top-quartile rest for this sport
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.06 (n=38,722, p=2.9e-18)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.07 (n=30,351, p=1.2e-20)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.07, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher walks·late in the season
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.06 (n=22,662, p=3.8e-17)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.02 (n=14,846, p=0.003)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.07, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher walks·bottom-quartile rest for this sport
  Discovered 2015–2020 -0.03 (n=38,289, p=4.9e-10)Confirmed 2021–2024 -0.03 (n=27,662, p=5.8e-9)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.05, held
• VALIDATEDmlb pitcher walks·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2015–2020 +0.03 (n=24,911, p=1.8e-5)Confirmed 2021–2024 +0.02 (n=18,816, p=0.002)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.03, held
• VALIDATEDnhl assists·against a top-quartile-generous opponent for this stat
  Discovered 2022–2023 +0.06 (n=11,376, p=2.2e-17)Confirmed 2024 +0.04 (n=9,590, p=3.1e-8)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.04, held
• VALIDATEDnhl assists·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2022–2023 -0.04 (n=11,484, p=6.2e-9)Confirmed 2024 -0.03 (n=9,925, p=4.1e-6)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.04, held
• VALIDATEDnhl goals·against a top-quartile-generous opponent for this stat
  Discovered 2022–2023 +0.03 (n=11,376, p=8.0e-10)Confirmed 2024 +0.02 (n=9,590, p=9.6e-5)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.02, held
• VALIDATEDnhl goals·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2022–2023 -0.02 (n=11,484, p=9.4e-6)Confirmed 2024 -0.02 (n=9,925, p=1.8e-4)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.02, held
• VALIDATEDnhl points·bottom-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2022–2023 +0.10 (n=15,674, p=1.4e-51)Confirmed 2024 +0.08 (n=14,736, p=8.3e-30)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.08, held
• VALIDATEDnhl points·recent form bottom-quartile BELOW the established level
  Discovered 2022–2023 -0.04 (n=11,191, p=3.4e-6)Confirmed 2024 -0.05 (n=10,270, p=2.6e-9)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.03, held
• VALIDATEDnhl points·top-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2022–2023 -0.12 (n=13,260, p=7.1e-46)Confirmed 2024 -0.09 (n=10,192, p=2.2e-21)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.08, held
• VALIDATEDnhl points·against a top-quartile-generous opponent for this stat
  Discovered 2022–2023 +0.09 (n=11,376, p=4.4e-26)Confirmed 2024 +0.06 (n=9,590, p=8.3e-12)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.06, held
• VALIDATEDnhl points·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2022–2023 -0.06 (n=11,484, p=2.2e-13)Confirmed 2024 -0.05 (n=9,925, p=3.2e-9)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.06, held
• VALIDATEDnhl shots·bottom-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2022–2023 +0.17 (n=14,181, p=8.2e-37)Confirmed 2024 +0.13 (n=10,792, p=2.7e-19)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.13, held
• VALIDATEDnhl shots·recent form bottom-quartile BELOW the established level
  Discovered 2022–2023 -0.10 (n=11,267, p=6.3e-9)Confirmed 2024 -0.13 (n=9,593, p=3.1e-13)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.09, held
• VALIDATEDnhl shots·top-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2022–2023 -0.19 (n=13,514, p=7.7e-29)Confirmed 2024 -0.14 (n=9,798, p=4.5e-14)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.14, held
• VALIDATEDnhl shots·against a top-quartile-generous opponent for this stat
  Discovered 2022–2023 +0.14 (n=11,376, p=5.2e-18)Confirmed 2024 +0.12 (n=9,590, p=3.5e-13)
  Since: 2025–2026: +0.09, held
• VALIDATEDnhl shots·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2022–2023 -0.14 (n=11,484, p=5.5e-18)Confirmed 2024 -0.13 (n=9,925, p=1.1e-15)
  Since: 2025–2026: -0.11, held
• VALIDATEDpass attempts·bottom-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2016–2021 +6.10 (n=890, p=5.4e-36)Confirmed 2022–2024 +6.90 (n=496, p=3.2e-26)
  Since: 2025: +5.73, held
• VALIDATEDpass attempts·team a touchdown-plus underdog
  Discovered 2016–2021 -2.00 (n=597, p=2.3e-5)Confirmed 2022–2024 -1.70 (n=239, p=0.014)
  Since: 2025: too thin to re-measure
• VALIDATEDpass attempts·top-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2016–2021 -6.67 (n=939, p=6.2e-61)Confirmed 2022–2024 -6.37 (n=489, p=5.2e-31)
  Since: 2025: -6.95, held
• VALIDATEDpassing yards·bottom-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2016–2021 +22.65 yds (n=880, p=9.3e-10)Confirmed 2022–2024 +15.46 yds (n=483, p=0.003)
  Since: 2025: +6.87 yds, held
• VALIDATEDpassing yards·recent form bottom-quartile BELOW the established level
  Discovered 2016–2021 -21.53 yds (n=879, p=2.9e-10)Confirmed 2022–2024 -18.52 yds (n=483, p=8.2e-5)
  Since: 2025: -26.55 yds, held
• VALIDATEDpassing yards·recent form top-quartile ABOVE the established level
  Discovered 2016–2021 +16.18 yds (n=878, p=5.1e-6)Confirmed 2022–2024 +17.42 yds (n=482, p=3.3e-4)
  Since: 2025: +28.40 yds, held
• VALIDATEDpassing yards·team a touchdown-plus underdog
  Discovered 2016–2021 -12.79 yds (n=597, p=6.0e-4)Confirmed 2022–2024 -15.18 yds (n=239, p=0.008)
  Since: 2025: too thin to re-measure
• VALIDATEDpassing yards·top-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2016–2021 -23.35 yds (n=887, p=1.5e-12)Confirmed 2022–2024 -21.88 yds (n=483, p=5.2e-7)
  Since: 2025: -11.64 yds, held
• VALIDATEDreceiving yards·playing at home
  Discovered 2016–2021 +0.65 yds (n=14,093, p=0.036)Confirmed 2022–2024 +1.16 yds (n=7,563, p=0.004)
  Same test from the other side — playing away: -0.65 yds
  Since: 2025: +0.45 yds, held
• VALIDATEDreceiving yards·bottom-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2016–2021 +4.00 yds (n=7,228, p=1.8e-50)Confirmed 2022–2024 +2.94 yds (n=3,899, p=3.9e-18)
  Since: 2025: +3.11 yds, held
• VALIDATEDreceiving yards·recent form bottom-quartile BELOW the established level
  Discovered 2016–2021 -4.39 yds (n=7,073, p=5.0e-31)Confirmed 2022–2024 -4.84 yds (n=3,796, p=1.4e-22)
  Since: 2025: -6.11 yds, held
• VALIDATEDreceiving yards·top-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2016–2021 -6.14 yds (n=7,072, p=3.3e-40)Confirmed 2022–2024 -4.22 yds (n=3,811, p=4.3e-12)
  Since: 2025: -5.43 yds, held
• VALIDATEDreceiving yards·under a roof
  Discovered 2016–2021 +1.44 yds (n=7,439, p=5.8e-5)Confirmed 2022–2024 +1.19 yds (n=4,797, p=0.007)
  Since: 2025: +1.28 yds, held
• VALIDATEDreceiving yards·outdoor wind 15+ mph
  Discovered 2016–2021 -2.88 yds (n=2,430, p=3.2e-8)Confirmed 2022–2024 -2.10 yds (n=740, p=0.014)
  Since: 2025: -2.22 yds, held
• VALIDATEDreceptions·bottom-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2016–2021 +0.66 rec (n=9,471, p=4.1e-224)Confirmed 2022–2024 +0.59 rec (n=3,917, p=7.4e-114)
  Since: 2025: +0.60 rec, held
• VALIDATEDreceptions·top-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2016–2021 -1.03 rec (n=7,076, p=9.1e-217)Confirmed 2022–2024 -0.87 rec (n=4,125, p=3.0e-94)
  Since: 2025: -0.95 rec, held
• VALIDATEDrushing yards·bottom-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2016–2021 +2.80 yds (n=2,980, p=1.2e-12)Confirmed 2022–2024 +3.21 yds (n=1,630, p=4.7e-9)
  Since: 2025: +2.51 yds, held
• VALIDATEDrushing yards·recent form bottom-quartile BELOW the established level
  Discovered 2016–2021 -6.55 yds (n=2,978, p=3.8e-29)Confirmed 2022–2024 -9.39 yds (n=1,607, p=4.8e-33)
  Since: 2025: -5.95 yds, held
• DECAYINGrushing yards·recent form top-quartile ABOVE the established level
  Discovered 2016–2021 +4.16 yds (n=2,975, p=8.5e-11)Confirmed 2022–2024 +4.16 yds (n=1,606, p=1.1e-6)
  Since: 2025: +0.69 yds, missed
• VALIDATEDrushing yards·top-quartile recent form
  Discovered 2016–2021 -4.74 yds (n=2,986, p=4.5e-11)Confirmed 2022–2024 -3.41 yds (n=1,614, p=4.8e-4)
  Since: 2025: -5.40 yds, held
• VALIDATEDrushing yards·late in the season
  Discovered 2016–2021 +2.36 yds (n=3,119, p=3.2e-5)Confirmed 2022–2024 +2.30 yds (n=1,880, p=0.001)
  Since: 2025: +1.32 yds, held
• VALIDATEDrushing yards·against a bottom-quartile-generous opponent
  Discovered 2016–2021 -3.40 yds (n=2,896, p=1.6e-8)Confirmed 2022–2024 -3.60 yds (n=1,613, p=3.8e-6)
  Since: 2025: -3.85 yds, held
• DECAYINGtargets·late in the season
  Discovered 2016–2021 +0.08 (n=7,391, p=0.020)Confirmed 2022–2024 +0.13 (n=4,372, p=0.002)
  Since: 2025: +0.04, missed
• DECAYINGtouchdowns·playing at home
  Discovered 2016–2021 +0.02 (n=14,093, p=9.8e-4)Confirmed 2022–2024 +0.03 (n=7,563, p=2.9e-4)
  Same test from the other side — playing away: -0.02
  Since: 2025: +0.01, missed
• DECAYINGtouchdowns·under a roof
  Discovered 2016–2021 +0.01 (n=7,439, p=0.039)Confirmed 2022–2024 +0.02 (n=4,797, p=0.033)
  Since: 2025: -0.01, missed
• VALIDATEDufc finish·both fighters finish at a top-quartile rate
  Discovered 1994–2018 +19.59 pts (n=310, p=8.0e-13)Confirmed 2019–2023 +20.27 pts (n=146, p=5.0e-7)
  Since: 2024–2026: too thin to re-measure
• VALIDATEDufc finish·top-quartile submission winner against a top-quartile knockout winner
  Discovered 1994–2018 +11.98 pts (n=219, p=3.7e-4)Confirmed 2019–2023 +9.25 pts (n=151, p=0.027)
  Since: 2024–2026: too thin to re-measure
• VALIDATEDufc goes distance·both fighters finish at a top-quartile rate
  Discovered 1994–2018 -19.36 pts (n=310, p=1.5e-12)Confirmed 2019–2023 -20.11 pts (n=146, p=6.2e-7)
  Since: 2024–2026: too thin to re-measure
• VALIDATEDufc goes distance·top-quartile submission winner against a top-quartile knockout winner
  Discovered 1994–2018 -12.25 pts (n=219, p=2.6e-4)Confirmed 2019–2023 -9.80 pts (n=151, p=0.019)
  Since: 2024–2026: too thin to re-measure
• VALIDATEDufc moneyline·coming in six-plus months fresher than the opponent
  Discovered 1994–2018 +9.70 pts (n=330, p=7.0e-4)Confirmed 2019–2023 +6.61 pts (n=281, p=0.039)
  Since: 2024–2026: +6.76 pts, held
• VALIDATEDufc moneyline·a reach advantage of four inches or more
  Discovered 1994–2018 +6.76 pts (n=395, p=0.011)Confirmed 2019–2023 +9.23 pts (n=246, p=0.006)
  Since: 2024–2026: +8.19 pts, held
• VALIDATEDufc moneyline·younger than the opponent by six-plus years
  Discovered 1994–2018 +14.70 pts (n=407, p=1.1e-8)Confirmed 2019–2023 +19.52 pts (n=258, p=5.7e-10)
  Since: 2024–2026: +24.86 pts, held