The Ledger

Every pick this platform publishes, recorded before its event and graded from the sport's own official results. Grades are write-once at the database — a cold streak stays on this page exactly as long as a hot one.

The Ledger

Every pick

Every published pick is recorded before its event and graded after it. Nothing is deleted, nothing is regraded.

2,396picks recorded before their event
2,314 graded from official results, 82 still open — none edited, none deleted

Accuracy: 50%
Return at the prices published: -163.7u
Brier score: 0.231

Sport	Record	Hit	Brier	CLV
MLB	1094–1100	50%	0.231	+1.0
NFL	16–16	50%	0.268	—
UFC	9–8	53%	0.225	-0.6

82 picks recorded and awaiting settlement. Brier: 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is sharper. CLV: probability points gained on the closing line — positive means the market moved toward our number.

By the price taken

One unit a pick. “Needed” is the hit rate that band's own average price had to clear to break even.

Price	Picks	Hit	Needed	Units
Heavy favourites	436	70.6%	71.3%	-4.1
Favourites	824	55.6%	59.6%	-62.5
Around even	207	54.6%	50.1%	+18.5
Underdogs	518	34.6%	40.9%	-82.8
Long shots	258	23.6%	26.9%	-32.9

Settled

The most recent 300 of 20,215 settled picks. Show all 20,215 — it is a long page, and nothing is left out of it.

Pick	Ours	Price → close	Result
Roman WilsonReceiving yards Under 22.5 · NFL	55%	-114	loss74
Jaylen WarrenRush attempts Under 16.5 · NFL	73%	+100	loss17
Darnell WashingtonAnytime TD Under 0.5 · NFL	82%	-788	loss1
Darnell WashingtonAnytime TD Over 0.5 · NFLpick	18%	+590

Open positions

Pick	Ours	Price	Settles
Angel MartinezHits Under 0.5 · MLB	45%	+131	Oct 3, 5:01 PM
Nathaniel LoweRuns batted in Over 0.5 · MLB	32%	+210	Oct 3, 5:01 PM
Steven KwanHits Under 0.5 · MLB	36%	+160	Oct 3, 5:01 PM
Parker MessickHits allowed Over 4.5 · MLB	51%	+110	Oct 3, 5:01 PM
Brenton DoyleHits Under 0.5 · MLB	55%	+101

Awaiting a grade

176 picks whose events have been played and whose results have not been written back — the oldest from 9/10/2026. They are counted here rather than under “open”, because a pick parked as open for ever is a pick that never has to face a result. They are excluded from every figure above, which is why the settled count and this one do not add up to the total published.

Pick	Ours	Price	Played
Drake BaldwinRuns batted in Over 0.5 · MLB	31%	+225	Oct 1, 6:00 PM
J.T. RealmutoHits Over 0.5 · MLB	59%	-150	Oct 1, 6:00 PM
Austin RileyHits Over 0.5 · MLB	60%	-134	Oct 1, 6:00 PM
Ozzie AlbiesHits Over 0.5 · MLB	62%	-159	Oct 1, 6:00 PM