top-quartile submission winner against a top-quartile knockout winner in ufc moneyline: tested and failed. +0.04 pts (n=219) did not survive correction or did not reproduce on a later era.
Discovery applies a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery correction across every condition tested in this market at once, so a result here is already adjusted for how many conditions were tried. Confirmation re-runs the same test on a chronologically later era the engine had never seen. The eras differ by sport, because each sport has the history it has.
This condition is on the record because it was tested, not because it works. It did not survive, and nothing in this product uses it.
Identifier ufc_moneyline:grappler_vs_striker. Synced 2026-08-17.