Model performance

Two kinds of evidence, kept apart on purpose: the LIVE ledger below grades published picks against real results as they settle; everything under it is the out-of-sample record each model was promoted with.

The Ledger

Every pick

Every published pick is recorded before its event and graded after it. Nothing is deleted, nothing is regraded.

52%of our picks hit — 572–529 graded, 174 open
95% interval 49.0% to 54.9%

-52.8uone unit a pick at the price published — -4.8% on 1101 staked
this is the number that says whether the record made money

Sport	Record	Hit	Brier	CLV
MLB	570–528	52%	0.219	+1.0
UFC	2–1	67%	0.163	-0.9

174 picks recorded and awaiting settlement. Brier: 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is sharper. CLV: probability points gained on the closing line — positive means the market moved toward our number.

The governor — every market judged by the closing line

A market earns the right to claim an edge by beating closing prices over at least 40 measured picks with a confidence interval clear of zero — thresholds set in code before any data existed. Verdicts advise; nothing promotes itself silently.

Market	Verdict	Record	CLV	n
Runs batted in · MLB	edge confirmed	552–562	+1.24pp	486
Runs scored · MLB	edge confirmed	559–504	+0.81pp	454
Strikeouts · MLB	earning	63–44	+0.21pp	54
Hits allowed · MLB	earning	64–52	+0.20pp	49

Unvalidated

no significant edge over baseline

CRPS improvement over baseline

Higher is better. Muted bars did not reach significance at p < 0.05 on a paired block bootstrap over weeks.

Walk-forward results per market against an empirical baseline
Market	Learner	CRPS	Baseline	Delta	p	Log loss	Calib. error	Cov 80	Rows
Anytime TD anytime_td	lgbm	0.167	0.183	+9.0%	< 0.0005	0.4997	0.0165	0.984	28,938
dst sacks dst_sacks	lgbm	0.958	1.019	+6.0%	< 0.0005	0.6354	0.0137	0.899	3,230
dst takeaways dst_takeaways

What we claimed, against what happened

Every curve on this page comes from the walk-forward harness and describes a model. This describes the published numbers — scored against the append-only record of what was issued and how it settled.

Every published pick

claimed 53.5% · hit 50.8% [49.0–52.6] n=2,925

Over 2,925 settled picks over 9 event days, these claimed 53.5% and hit 50.8%. The claim sits OUTSIDE the [49.0%, 52.6%] interval on the outcome, so the 2.7 point overstatement is more than sampling noise. Read a published percentage with that in mind.

Recommended picks only

claimed 56.6% · hit 52.0% [49.0–54.9] n=1,101

Over 1,101 settled picks over 9 event days, these claimed 56.6% and hit 52.0%. The claim sits OUTSIDE the [49.0%, 54.9%] interval on the outcome, so the 4.6 point overstatement is more than sampling noise. Read a published percentage with that in mind.

Nothing here is corrected for. Correcting means fitting, and fitting on a record this shallow means fitting to a handful of slates — the record spans 9 event days, and the floor set for touching a published probability is ten. The gap is shown instead.

Calibration, drawn

The curves behind the scalars, from out-of-sample walk-forward predictions — never re-scored in-sample, which would draw flattery. Reliability: claimed probability against observed frequency; a calibrated model hugs the diagonal, and point size is sample count, because a bin of nine and a bin of nine thousand are different kinds of evidence. PIT: twenty bars that sit flat at the dashed line when the whole predicted distribution is shaped right — a U is overconfidence, a hump is timidity, a slope is bias.

anytime_td

ECE 0.018 · PIT 0.026

reliability

Probabilistic metrics are computed at a grid of realistic lines, not at sportsbook prices. They measure whether the model's probabilities are calibrated. They do not measure profit.

Model performance

The Ledger

The governor — every market judged by the closing line

CRPS improvement over baseline

What we claimed, against what happened

Every published pick

Recommended picks only

Calibration, drawn

anytime_td

dst_sacks

dst_takeaways

extra_points

fg_made

first_td

idp_sacks

kicking_points

last_td

pass_att

pass_cmp

pass_int

pass_longest

pass_td

pass_yds

points_allowed

rec_longest

rec_rush_yds

rec_yds

receptions

rush_att

rush_longest

rush_yds

solo_tackles

tackles_assists